Hiring Increases and Wages Rise, Tariffs’ Impact, Cyber Monday Sales

Welcome to this week’s episode of the Paychex THRIVE Week in Review. This is where we take a couple of items from the news that impacts your small business and my small business, and we talk about it just a little bit. Now, before we get started, I just want to give you a quick note because it's moments like this talking about the challenges we face as business owners that remind me of how important the right support can be for our businesses. That's where Paychex comes in. They're trusted by nearly 800,000 businesses to handle payroll, HR, and benefits. It's like having a reliable partner who's got your back so you can focus on growing your business and leading your team.

Take a minute after the podcast and see how Paychex can help you at paychex.com/meetpaychex. That's P-A-Y-C-H-E-X dot-com forward slash M-E-E-T-P-A-Y-C-H-E-X. You can also find the link in the show notes to this episode.

Okay, so let's get to business. We have three items of news that I thought would be interesting to you, both as a business owner or working at a small business, just like me running a small business.

So, the first item comes from Paychex. It is the most recent edition of the Small Business Employment Watch. This is for November of 2025, and according to the November 2025 update of the Paychex Small Business Employment Watch, small business hiring edged up slightly. The Small Business Jobs Index rose to 99.38, which is a 0.11 percentage points from October. Hourly earnings growth ticked up modestly to 2.66%.

The report, which draws on payroll data from Paychex clients with fewer than 50 employees, suggests that employment and wage growth among small businesses remains stable, reflecting a broadly consistent labor market for smaller employers through the end of autumn.

So, with what we hear about the struggles of the economy and potential tariffs and inflation and all the different challenges that small businesses have, it seems that small business hiring has remained resilient, according to Paychex, and actually hourly wages have ticked up just a little bit.

So, good news for the economy and also good news for small businesses who, as we know, contribute half of this country's GDP and hire half of the country's workforce, as well.

The next bit of news comes from CNBC. It's about tariffs. The tariffs themselves could impact and could reduce headcount in 2026, according to a CNBC report. Companies across U.S. manufacturing are warning that tariffs imposed in 2025 could lead to staffing cuts in 2026.

As increased costs for raw materials and components squeeze margins, many firms are reportedly planning to shrink headcount rather than hire or maintain staffing. The shift threatens to undercut the initial intention behind tariffs to revitalize domestic manufacturing by prompting firms to reduce costs via labor reductions rather than expanding operations.

So, according to this report from CNBC, some firms, particularly in the manufacturing space, which by the way, manufacturing has been contracting over the past 12 months, still struggling among the manufacturing sector, they might have to be laying off employees in 2026 as these tariffs take effect, we will see.

The final item of news comes from a site called Digital Commerce 360 and they're covering Cyber Monday sales. Cyber Monday 2025 online sales have been impacted significantly by the adoption of Buy Now, Pay Later.

Cyber Monday 2025 set a new record for U.S. online spending with total e-commerce sales hitting about $14.25 billion, up 7.17% from 2024. Roughly 75.9 million Americans shopped online that day, a notable increase from the prior year. The data also highlights growing use of buy-now-pay-later services, which accounted for over a billion in sales on Cyber Monday and a sharp rise in traffic from generative AI shopping platforms, up 670 % year over year, underlying how AI and flexible payment methods are reshaping holiday consumer behavior.

So, yes, we have one report from CNBC saying that manufacturers might be letting go employees in 2026, but Paychex is telling us that wages rose a little bit and hiring among small businesses remain resilient. And then finally, we have this report from Digital Commerce saying that Cyber Monday sales we're up 7.1 % over last year.

One final comment to make on that. A lot of those Cyber Monday sales are being driven by buy-now-pay-later applications, which is great, but you got to be very, very careful with this, particularly if you're a business selling to your customers. Make sure they have all the facts about these buy-now-pay-later services. They are great, as long as you do pay later and on time. If you do not, you will be facing or they will be facing significant interest and penalties for not paying according to what they have committed to pay.

So, just be aware that buy now pay later could be a good thing for a lot of your customers and consumers, but they need to know all the facts going into it before they make a purchase using buy now pay later.

But good news from Paychex, concerning news from CNBC, and very encouraging news about Cyber Monday sales. That's the news this week that impacts your small business and mine.

My name is Gene Marks. You have been watching the Paychex THRIVE Week in Review. And if you have any needs or advice or help or you want tips for your business, sign up to our Paychex THRIVE newsletter. Go to paychex.com/thrive. You can get information that you need to help you run your business as well as prior episodes of this podcast.

So, thanks for listening or watching. We'll see you again next week with more news that impacts your business. Take care.

Do you have a topic or a guest that you would like to hear on THRIVE? Please let us know. Visit payx.me/thrivetopics and send us your ideas or matters of interest. Also, if your business is looking to simplify your HR payroll benefits or insurance services, see how Paychex can help. Visit the resource hub at paychex.com/worx. That's W-O-R-X. Paychex can help manage those complexities while you focus on all the ways you want your business to thrive.

I'm your host, Gene Marks, and thanks for joining us.

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